Upozorenje iz nove studije
Novo istraživanje koje analizira 5.000 godina ljudske istorije i pad više od 400 društava upozorava da je najvjerovatniji ishod kolaps civilizacije. Autor studije koristi istorijske obrasce da prikaže današnje rizike i tvrdi da je samouništenje najizglednije.
"We can’t put a date on Doomsday, but by looking at the 5,000 years of [civilisation], we can understand the trajectories we face today — and self-termination is most likely," Luke Kemp je iznio kao ključnu poruku istraživanja. Iako ističe pesimizam, dodaje i nadu: "I’m pessimistic about the future," he added. "But I’m optimistic about people."
Uzroci ranijih kolapsa i primjena danas
Studija opisuje kako centralizovane, nasilne elite—„Goliaths“—stvaraju monopole nad resursima, vodeći ka nejednakosti i dekadenciji. "History is best told as a story of organised crime," stoji u analizi. Kako elite izvlače bogatstvo, društva postaju ranjivija: unutrašnji sukobi, korupcija, osiromašenje masa, degradacija okoline i pogrešne odluke male olig arhije dovode do pucanja sistema.
"Then as elites extract more wealth from the people and the land, they make societies more fragile, leading to infighting, corruption, immiserization of the masses, less healthy people, overexpansion, environmental degradation, and poor decision making by a small oligarchy," he said. "The hollowed-out shell of a society is eventually cracked asunder by shocks such as disease, war or climate change." Ključni rizici danas su klimatska kriza, kolaps sistema hrane i stalna prijetnja nuklearnog sukoba.
Ko su krivci i kako izbjeći kolaps
Istraživač upozorava na koncentrisanu moć malog sloja ljudi i navodi primjere lidera: "The three most powerful men in the world are a walking version of the dark triad: Trump is a textbook narcissist, Putin is a cold psychopath, and Xi Jinping came to rule [China] by being a master Machiavellian manipulator." Kao izlaz predlaže demokratizaciju moći i progresivno oporezivanje bogatih. "Today, people find it easier to imagine that we can build intelligence on silicon than we can do democracy at scale, or that we can escape arms races," he said. "It’s complete bullsh*t. Of course we can do democracy at scale. We’re a naturally social, altruistic, democratic species, and we all have an anti-dominance intuition." "This is what we're built for," he added.
